Name: Gavin Newsom out as California Governor in 2025?
Start: 2025-01-14T21:11:28.64649Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom is no longer serving as Governor of California for any length of time between January 13 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Gavin Newsom's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Gavin Newsom out as California Governor in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Gavin Newsom will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Gavin Newsom (e.g., via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom is arrested between August 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Gavin Newsom arrested by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Gavin Newsom' in the "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" market  (https://www.u8fun.blog/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028?tid=1764680585562) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during any four-hour period ending by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No".

If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.www.u8fun.blog/index/odds-of-newsom-dem-pres-nominee-over-40-by-december-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.www.u8fun.blog.


Odds of Newsom Dem Pres Nominee over 40% by December 31?

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.

Will Eric Swalwell advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Former United States Vice President Kamala Harris announces that she is running for Governor of California in the 2026 midterm election, between June 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Kamala Harris will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether she actually filed a nomination to run, or whether she actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Kamala Harris (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or her official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Will Kamala Harris announce California Governor run in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Karen Bass is no longer serving as Mayor of Los Angeles for any length of time between January 13 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Karen Bass's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Karen Bass out as Mayor of LA in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Cook ceases to be CEO of Apple for any length of time between November 20, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Tim Cook's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Apple and/or Tim Cook, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Tim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Katie Porter withdraws from or officially announces her withdrawal from the 2026 California Governor race, or announces the suspension of her 2026 California Governor campaign, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Katie Porter or her official/legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Katie Porter drops out of the CA Gov race by Dec 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mark Carney announces he is resigning as head of the Liberal Party of Canada or otherwise ceases to be head of the Liberal Party of Canada for any length of time between April 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Mark Carney's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Mark Carney or the Liberal Party of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Mark Carney out as leader of Liberals in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between December 4, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Macron out by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Kimmel is no longer host of "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" for any length of time between September 18, and  December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Jimmy Kimmel's resignation or removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect.

If ABC or its parent company announces "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" is cancelled within timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Jimmy Kimmel and/or ABC, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.

Jimmy Kimmel cancelled by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  

Supreme Court vacancy in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xabi Alonso ceases to be manager of Real Madrid for any length of time between November 24, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Xabi Alonso's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Real Madrid and/or Xabi Alonso, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Xabi Alonso out as Real Madrid Manager in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the named people no longer serving as CEOs of their respective companies for any length of time between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

An announcement of the named CEO's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the named CEOs and their respective companies, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.

Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between February 3 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Spain's Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, is removed from power for any length of time between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of Spain within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Casey DeSantis announces that she is running for Governor of Florida in the 2026 Florida Gubernatorial Election, between February 28 ET, and December 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Casey DeSantis will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether she actually filed a nomination to run, or whether she actually files a nomination to run in the future.

If Casey DeSantis definitively states that she will not run for governor, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Casey DeSantis (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or her official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Will Casey DeSantis run for Florida Governor?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kristi Noem ceases to be the U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security for any period of time between December 8, 2025, and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Noem's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kristi Noem out as Secretary of Homeland Security by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between December 5, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed person is no longer host of their respective show for any length of time between September 18, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of this person's resignation or removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect.

If the owning network or its parent company announces the show that the listed person hosts is cancelled within timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the listed person or the owning network of the show that they host, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.

Jimmy Fallon cancelled by December 31?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Colorado, scheduled to take place on June 30, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Colorado Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Colorado Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count.

Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position.

Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual  will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?

Proposition 50 is a 2025 legislatively referred constitutional amendment on congressional redistricting, proposed for the statewide special election in California currently set for November 4, 2025.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 50 or any other legislatively referred statewide measure that authorizes or implements congressional redistricting is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide special election currently set for November 4, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 4, 2025 statewide ballot—including any deadline set or modified by the statute calling that special election—no qualifying legislatively referred measure has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.

If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.

The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by  State of California. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.

California redistricting referendum passes?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if David Baszucki ceases to be CEO of Roblox for any length of time between August 14, and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of David Baszucki's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Roblox and/or David Baszucki, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


David Baszucki out as Roblox CEO in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the election or referendum won by Democrats with the highest margin of victory compared to the other listed events, all scheduled for November 4, 2025:

- Virginia Governor election
- Virginia House of Delegates election
- New Jersey Governor election
- New York City Mayor election
- California referendum “Proposition 50”

If the results of any of these elections are not confirmed by July 31, 2026, this market will be resolved according to the results published thus far.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official election authority sources conducting the election.

Gavin Newsom out as California Governor in 2025?

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Market Context

Gavin Newsom out as California Governor in 2025?

Rules

Gavin Newsom out as California Governor in 2025?

Order Book

Market Context

Gavin Newsom out as California Governor in 2025?

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