Market icon

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by December 31?

$493,162 Vol.

2 47%

3 37%

4 16.6%

5 2.5%

OUTCOME
% CHANCE

Rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 13, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$493,162
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Created At
Oct 13, 2025, 3:58 PM UTC
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$493,162 Vol.

Market icon

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by December 31?

2 47%

3 37%

4 16.6%

5 2.5%

OUTCOME
% CHANCE

2

$73,197 Vol.

47%

3

$55,220 Vol.

37%

4

$39,535 Vol.

17%

5

$27,287 Vol.

2%

>5

$45,394 Vol.

1%

About

Volume
$493,162
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Created At
Oct 13, 2025, 3:58 PM UTC
shield

Beware of external links.