Name: Lighter market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
Start: 2025-06-26T19:50:27.57968Z
End: 2025-12-31T00:00:00Z

Use the internal polymarket geolocation service.

poly_geo

Improved notification preferences and types.

notifications_v2

funkit_deposit

funkit_withdraw

authenticated_book_ws

Improved in-game view for sports markets.

mobile_sports_overlay_v2

async_order_submission

Enable updates from the sports websocket.

sports_websocket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Lighter's token is greater than $2,000,000,000 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Lighter doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

>$2B

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Lighter's token is greater than $6,000,000,000 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Lighter doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

>$6B

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Lighter's token is greater than $4,000,000,000 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Lighter doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

>$4B

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Lighter's token is greater than $8,000,000,000 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Lighter doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

>$8B

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Lighter's token is greater than $10,000,000,000 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Lighter doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

>$10B

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Lighter's token is greater than $14,000,000,000 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Lighter doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

>$14B

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Lighter's token is greater than $1,000,000,000 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Lighter doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

>$1B

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Lighter's token is greater than $3,000,000,000 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Lighter doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

>$3B

Lighter market cap (FDV) one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of MegaETH's token is greater than $2,000,000,000 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If MegaETH doesn't launch a token by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ligher launches a token and performs an airdrop by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Airdrops of NFTs will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from Lighter, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Football.Fun's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Football.Fun doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Football.Fun FDV above $70M one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Felix's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Felix Protocol doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Sentient's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Sentient doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Fogo's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Fogo (https://x.com/fogo/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Backpack's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Backpack (https://x.com/Backpack) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Harmnoix's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Harmonix (https://x.com/harmonixfi) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Harmonix FDV above $25M one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of USD.AI's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If USD.AI (https://usd.ai/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Makina's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Makina doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Makina FDV above $80M one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ranger's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ranger (https://x.com/ranger_finance/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Ranger FDV above $15M one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Based's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Based (https://x.com/BasedOneX) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Based FDV above $300M one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Hyperbeats's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Hyperbeat (https://x.com/hyperbeat) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Hyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Theo's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Theo (https://x.com/Theo_Network) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Rainbow's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Rainbow (https://rainbow.me/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Rainbow FDV above $500M one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ostium's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ostium doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Ostium FDV above $700M one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Infinex's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Infinex (https://infinex.xyz/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Infinex FDV above $400M one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of VOOI's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If VOOI (https://vooi.io/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

VOOI FDV above $300M one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of EdgeX's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If EdgeX doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of StandX's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If StandX (https://x.com/StandX_Official) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Metamask doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ink's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ink (http://inkonchain.com/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Paradex's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Paradex (https://x.com/paradex) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Paradex FDV above $750M one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Aztec's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Aztec (https://aztec.network/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Aztec FDV above $500M one day after launch?

This market will resolve based on Freddie Mac's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Will Freddie Mac not IPO by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Monad launches a token
- MetaMask launches a token
- Lighter launches a token
- Opensea launches a token
- Meteora launches a token

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the above-specified projects do not launch a token during this market’s above-specified time frame.

For a qualifying launch, the token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the respective projects; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Token Launch Party Parlay

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any TradingView 1 minute candle for CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS between November 3, 2025, 11:00 AM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is TradingView, specifically the CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS “Low” prices available at https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=CRYPTOCAP%3AOTHERS, with the chart settings on “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market depends solely on price data from the TradingView CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS chart. Prices from other sources, indices, or exchanges will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Altcoin market cap dip to $160B by December 31?

This market will resolve based on Fannie Mae's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Fannie Mae’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hyperliquid performs a second airdrop by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Airdrops of NFTs will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from Hyperliquid, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? 

This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ventuals (https://x.com/ventuals) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Ventuals, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Ventuals launch a token by September 30 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Fogo (https://x.com/fogo/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Fogo, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Fogo launch a token by December 31 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Fomo (https://fomo.family/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Fomo, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for FARTCOINUSDT between October 15, 2025, 10:00 and December 31, 2025, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price of $0.7 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the FARTCOINUSDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/futures/fartcoinusdt, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.

Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance FARTCOINUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Fartcoin hit $0.7 by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention.

2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either:
- The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or
- The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene.

3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles.

Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service.

This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Opensea officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be publicly announced and transferable on a blockchain. If a first such token launch occurs outside of this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be public announcements from Opensea.

Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.

OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.

Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.

If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.

If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will 

The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Infrared (https://x.com/InfraredFinance) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Infrared, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Infrared launch a token by September 30 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Felix Protocol officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Felix Protocol, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to the listed participant with the highest PnL at the end of the Orderly trading competition starting on November 14, 2025.

The resolution source will be the Orderly Heavyweight Leaderboard on https://app.orderly.network/campaigns.

If two or more participants are tied for the highest PnL at the time of resolution, the market will resolve to the participant whose display name appears first in alphabetical order on the official Orderly Heavyweight Leaderboard.

If the competition is not completed or the official leaderboard is unavailable, the market will remain open until reliable data is published by Orderly. If no such data becomes available by December 31, 2025 ET, the market will resolve to “Other".

Will Taiki Maeda win the Orderly trading competition?

Robinhood, through a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group, recently acquired a majority stake in MIAXdx, a Commodity Futures Trading Commission-licensed Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization, signaling Robinhood’s intent to deepen its involvement in prediction markets (see: https://robinhood.com/us/en/newsroom/robinhood-prediction-markets-joint-venture/).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robinhood makes at least one MIAXdx-cleared prediction market user-tradable on their U.S. platform in any U.S. state by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“MIAXdx-cleared” means the prediction market contract is listed on the MIAXdx Designated Contract Market and subject to MIAXdx clearing. Prediction markets offered by Robinhood through KalshiEX, ForecastEX, or any other exchange will not count.

Announcements alone do not qualify; the product must be operational.

Any rebranding or renaming of MIAXdx will not affect the resolution of this market.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be information from the Robinhood U.S. trading platform and a consensus of credible reporting.

Lighter market cap (FDV) one day after launch?

>$1B
$7,249,444 Vol.
63%
0123456789
%

>$2B
$6,374,576 Vol.
60%
0123456789
%

>$3B
$1,096,061 Vol.
52%
0123456789
%

>$4B
$2,626,870 Vol.
31%
0123456789
%

>$6B
$1,234,531 Vol.
10%
0123456789
%

>$8B
$493,255 Vol.
6%
0123456789
%

>$10B
$204,664 Vol.
4%
0123456789
%

>$14B
$255,293 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Market Context

Lighter market cap (FDV) one day after launch?

Rules

Lighter market cap (FDV) one day after launch?

Market Context

Lighter market cap (FDV) one day after launch?

About

Related

Lighter market cap (FDV) one day after launch?

>$1B$7,249,444 Vol.63%0123456789%buy Yes64¢buy No39¢

>$2B$6,374,576 Vol.60%0123456789%buy Yes61¢buy No42¢

>$3B$1,096,061 Vol.52%0123456789%buy Yes52¢buy No49¢

>$4B$2,626,870 Vol.31%0123456789%buy Yes32¢buy No71¢

>$6B$1,234,531 Vol.10%0123456789%buy Yes10.4¢buy No89.7¢

>$8B$493,255 Vol.6%0123456789%buy Yes5.7¢buy No94.4¢

>$10B$204,664 Vol.4%0123456789%buy Yes4.4¢buy No96.4¢

>$14B$255,293 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes1.5¢buy No98.7¢

Market Context

Lighter market cap (FDV) one day after launch?

Rules

Lighter market cap (FDV) one day after launch?

Market Context

Lighter market cap (FDV) one day after launch?

About

Related

>$1B
$7,249,444 Vol.
63%
0123456789
%

>$2B
$6,374,576 Vol.
60%
0123456789
%

>$3B
$1,096,061 Vol.
52%
0123456789
%

>$4B
$2,626,870 Vol.
31%
0123456789
%

>$6B
$1,234,531 Vol.
10%
0123456789
%

>$8B
$493,255 Vol.
6%
0123456789
%

>$10B
$204,664 Vol.
4%
0123456789
%

>$14B
$255,293 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%