Name: Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?
Start: 2025-01-15T01:09:22.492854Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yoon Suk Yeol is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for charges related to the 2024 South Korean political crisis, including but not limited to allegations of insurrection, abuse of power, or other criminal acts stemming from his martial law declaration and related subsequent actions by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will remain open through 2025 regardless of whether Yoon's initial sentencing includes prison.  Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Yoon Prison Sentence

Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?

South Korea’s Constitutional Court has unanimously removed President Yoon Suk Yeol from office, ruling that his declaration of martial law last year was unconstitutional. This decision, made four months after the controversial decree, marks a significant political crisis and ends months of legal and political turmoil in the country.

Yoon Suk Yeol Impeached

BREAKING: South Korean court has removed President Yoon Suk Yeol from office

BREAKING: South Korean President Yoon removed from office over martial law attempt

BREAKING: South Korea's Constitutional Court decided to oust President Yoon Suk Yeol, upholding parliament's impeachment motion over his short-lived imposition of martial law last year that sparked the country's worst political crisis in decades https://t.co/65xpRHFpZV

[BREAKING] South Korea removes President Yoon Suk Yeol. The Constitutional Court upholds Yoon's impeachment case. Vote: 8:0.

South Korea’s Constitutional Court has removed impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol from office. https://t.co/O7tirpqX5t

Yoon Seokyeol resmi DImakzulkan dari posisinya sebagai Presiden Korea.

8 dari 8 Hakim Mahkamah Konstitusi Korea setuju bahwa pemakzulan Yoon Seokyeol Konstitusional

https://t.co/Qd6NwtVAFn https://t.co/PGHTh6zCbX

🚨 BREAKING: Presiden Korea Selatan, Yoon Seok-yeol secara resmi dimakzulkan dari jabatannya. ✅

8 dari 8 Hakim Mahkamah Konstitusi Korea Selatan telah SEPAKAT. ⚖️👨‍⚖️👩‍⚖️

South Korean court removes President Yoon Suk Yeol from office over martial law saga https://t.co/VmhMq3pGB6

🇰🇷 URGENTE: Por 8 a 0, Suprema Corte da Coreia do Sul diz que “lei marcial” feriu a constituição do país e confirma impeachment do presidente Yoon Suk-yeol. https://t.co/hm7LukR6YJ

🚨SEOUL (@CNN) — SOUTH KOREA PRESIDENT YOON REMOVED FROM POWER, CONSTITUTIONAL COURT RULES, 4 MONTHS AFTER YOON DECLARED MARTIAL LAW https://t.co/1F5yLlUvvs

South Korean court removes President Yoon Suk Yeol from office over martial law saga https://t.co/AkDJrVrbD7

South Korea’s constitutional court upholds impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol for imposing martial law - follow live
https://t.co/SrextCasCz

Mahkamah Konstitusi Korea Selatan dengan suara bulat menyetujui pemakzulan Presiden Yoon Suk Yeol pada Jumat (04/04).

Putusan ini merupakan tindak lanjut atas dekrit militer yang diumumkan Yoon akhir tahun lalu. https://t.co/yQPDyWmDZw

BREAKING: South Korea’s Constitutional Court removes impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol from office. https://t.co/Od012sQH6b

🚨SEOUL (@CNN) — SOUTH KOREA’S PRESIDENT YOON REMOVED FROM POWER, 4 MONTHS AFTER HE DECLARED MARTIAL LAW. Constitutional Court makes *unanimous* decision, ruling Yoon’s martial law decree and sending troops to the National Assembly were both illegal.

https://t.co/0TKpRh7jI5 https://t.co/pyOgXixiy6

BREAKING:

South Korea’s Constitutional Court just ruled that President Yoon will be impeached and removed from office.

It’s a major loss for South Korean conservatives and all forces opposing China, instead favoring close relations with the USA and the West.

H/t @saber_psvm https://t.co/fnoP9dR1Qt

🚨 BREAKING: In a unanimous ruling, South Korea’s Constitutional Court has upheld Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment and dismissed him from office.

This victory belongs to the masses of our people who have struggled without rest for four months to defeat the threat of military rule. https://t.co/mVelZEXy0p

BREAKING: South Korea’s Constitutional Court permanently removes President Yoon Suk Yeol from power over his short-lived martial law

Breaking news: South Korea’s president Yoon Suk Yeol has been removed from office, four months after his shortlived attempt to impose martial law https://t.co/iOQDbUdHsh https://t.co/Eif0e7Ojbt

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has been officially impeached and removed from office, following last December’s illegal declaration of martial law and today’s 8-0 vote upholding the impeachment by the Constitutional Court of Korea. https://t.co/X4NX5Q3aRt

🔴 URGENT - La Cour constitutionnelle de Corée du Sud destitue le président Yoon https://t.co/xXup4GFeJy https://t.co/PrR8EaSgwu

Breaking News: South Korea’s top court voted to eject President Yoon Suk Yeol, upholding his impeachment for declaring martial law. 

Follow live updates. https://t.co/Lcw2T2Nhax

South Korea’s President Yoon Suk-yeol was formally removed from office by the country’s Constitutional Court on Friday over his declaration of martial law late last year ⤵️ https://t.co/PgFaCdkgT5

BREAKING: South Korea’s Constitutional Court removed President Yoon Suk-yeol from office, ruling he violated basic rights by declaring martial law https://t.co/BhP8ayA9lQ https://t.co/uthAS0qDRi

South Korea's impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol has been released from detention after a court ruled his arrest was invalid, following nearly two months in custody on insurrection charges related to his martial law declaration. The decision has sparked significant public reaction, with supporters displaying U.S. flags to signal alignment with Western values, while the Constitutional Court will soon decide on his reinstatement or removal from office.

Yoon Released from Jail

SEOUL (@CNN) — YOON RELEASED FROM JAIL, WAVES AND BOWS TO SUPPORTERS https://t.co/3OXzvvGlwl

🚨A l’instant : le président sud-coréen, Yoon Suk-yeol, qui avait été suspendu, est sorti de prison après l’annulation de son mandat d’arrêt. https://t.co/ijeS6V7sJ5

South Korea's impeached President Yoon has been released from detention

President Yoon is released! https://t.co/KP81y0R4XU

President Yoon Suk-yeol finally released from jail after illegal and sinister delay. https://t.co/qcSdBYFN2l

🇰🇷 | AHORA: El presidente de Corea del Sur, Yoon Suk Yeol, es liberado de prisión tras ser destituido.

BREAKING:

Video of South Korean President Yoon leaving jail after 5 weeks behind bars.

Notice the many U.S flags held by his supporters. They’re there to show the world that Yoon aligns with the U.S. and West, unlike his opponents who favor Beijing

Via @Real_Politik101 https://t.co/imMaQRYanB

BREAKING:

South Korean President Yoon was just released from jail after 5 weeks behind bars.

It’s a victory for the “Stop the Steal” movement and a defeat for the pro-Chinese element in South Korea.

🇰🇷 https://t.co/UTWHaR8oo1

BREAKING: South Korea’s impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol released from prison

South Korea's impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol freed from prison after canceled arrest https://t.co/tpjwPfXKZs

Thank God, President Yoon has been released and returned to the presidential residence 52 days after his arrest. 
Now, the war against anti-state forces begins in earnest! 

#StopTheSteal #PresidentYoon 🇰🇷 https://t.co/O5nus23RMM

South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol, who lawmakers voted to impeach after declaring martial law, has been freed from detention
https://t.co/sEQnP29srT

South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol, who lawmakers voted to impeach after declaring martial law, has been freed from detention
https://t.co/73RwZCoCKQ

BREAKING: South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol, who lawmakers voted to impeach after declaring martial law, has been freed from detention

🚨🇰🇷BREAKING: SOUTH KOREAN PRESIDENT RELEASED FROM PRISON

South Korean prosecutors won’t appeal the court’s decision to release President Yoon Suk Yeol, who walked free from the Seoul Detention Center today.

The ruling People Power Party (PPP) condemned his detention as https://t.co/qWKPnnoA3s https://t.co/fxffV2b7VD

❗️Huge cheers as Yoon WALKS out of prison, bows to chanting crowds https://t.co/SPDfCo3w0O https://t.co/XmLp43Mwwk

Drama in South Korea continues.

President Yoon is temporarily released from prison after five weeks of detention. 

The Korean Constitutional Court is expected to decide in coming days whether to reinstate him or remove him from office.

The US is definitely playing a big role https://t.co/8FtxWa6VSd

PRESIDENT YOON SUK YEOL IS WALKING OUT OF JAIL RIGHT NOW. LFGGGGGGGGG. HE IS CURRENTLY WAVING AND BOWING TO HIS SUPPORTERS WHO WERE WAITING OUTSIDE THE JAIL CELL AS WE SPEAK. WE MISSED YOU MR PRESIDENT. https://t.co/oAUPnip6YG

BREAKING: South Korea’s impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol has been released from prison, TV footage on Saturday showed. https://t.co/JllZHF3AAN

South Korea’s impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol has been released from prison a day after a court cancelled his arrest warrant https://t.co/yuP0FRC2Hh https://t.co/WAf655C3Pd

Yoon earlier today on his way out https://t.co/pXGCqTExZO

BREAKING: President Yoon just released a statement "I thank the courage of the court for standing against illegal acts and making the correct decision. I pray everyone else unjustly jailed for insurrection will be released too. Thank you to the PPP Leadership and the people for https://t.co/cxQhAWpMVA https://t.co/H5M4qLs26m

Breaking News: South Korea’s impeached president, Yoon Suk Yeol, was released after a court ruled he had been detained illegally. He still faces insurrection and other charges. https://t.co/RekelDJt9q

🇰🇷 South Korean prosecutors have decided to release President Yoon Seok-yul following a court ruling that overturned the request to extend his detention. He left the pretrial detention center today, according to Yonhap News Agency. The court ruled the arrest was illegal due to https://t.co/N9I2b8E3tW

BREAKING: JUSTICE MINISTRY HAS RECEIVED THE "ORDER TO RELEASE YOON" AND BEGUN THE PROCESS FOR HIS RELEASE FROM DETENTION, ACCORDING TO NEWS1. https://t.co/fUMe0aWdzm

yoon dowoon😭🤍 https://t.co/wjvjOXMuOy

🔴 URGENT - Corée du Sud : le président suspendu Yoon sort de prison après l'annulation de son mandat d'arrêt https://t.co/0kaUlta9kV https://t.co/7mSUJAKdJI

South Korea’s Impeached President Yoon Released From Detention

https://t.co/vEsvqhcSWJ https://t.co/feIpbNtYoV

President Yoon Suk-yeol's declaration of martial law has sparked intense national debate, with supporters viewing it as a critical move to save the country from crisis, while opposition forces, led by the Democratic Party, propose establishing a special tribunal for insurrection and increasing Supreme Court justices. Pro-Yoon factions rally under the 'Yoon Again' slogan, likening current events to historical military operations like the Incheon Landing, and express strong anti-China sentiments alongside calls for American support.

Yoon Declares Martial Law

[속보] 민주 ＂내란특별재판소 설치·대법관 증원 국민 논의하자＂ (출처 : 뉴스1 | 네이버 뉴스) https://t.co/3awgpEfIcG

"요즘 돌아보면, 그때 계엄령이 선포된 건 정말 다행이었다고 느낀다. 대한민국의 심장이 멈추기 직전, 윤 대통령이 온몸을 바쳐 마지막 기회를 만들어낸 것이나 다름없었다."
무조건 윤어게인!
#YOONAGAIN https://t.co/vAu1L1F1qW

드디어 때가 오고 있네요
더 더 분탕치기바랍니다

그래야 내부의 적도 
일거에 척결 하지요

인천상륙작전은 이미 
출발했습니다

현존하는 대한민국 영웅은
#윤석열 #김용현
두 명 뿐입니다

그 외에는 누구도 영웅의 반열에
오를 수 없습니다

시간이 지나면 자연스레 드러납니다 https://t.co/nDOPSHDhiS

1.트럼프는 꾸준히 타이밍을 노리고있음. 쓰잘데없는간섭은 친중세력의 결집을 가져다온다

2.대중전략의 모든카드를가지고있음 -그중하나가 12.3짱퀴간첩체포-그리고 중공만 개박살 내버리면  국내 친중세력은 저절로 말라죽을것임

3.장기적인 인내를갖고 꾸준히 Yoon Again 외쳐야   미국이돕는다 https://t.co/ALHEd5id44

갑시다! 빨갱이들 잡으러!!!

제2의 인천상륙작전, 우리가 주력이다!!!

YOON AGAIN!!!
ONLY YOON!!! https://t.co/Krr1MlSerR

South Korea faces political turmoil as the Constitutional Court deliberates President Yoon's impeachment, with public opinion heavily favoring his removal at 58% according to recent surveys. The opposition party leverages the crisis, demanding government cooperation on wildfire relief in the southeastern region in exchange for approving their nominated constitutional judges.

Yoon Impeachment Crisis

Is the Constitutional Court’s ruling on President Yoon’s impeachment today March 27th? 

Because in my world, I’ll have moving Jiwon for Bvlgari. 

Oh we have ‘that’ presscon as well. 

Don’t forget, the deadly wildfires in Southeastern region in South Korea too 🔥🔥

The South Korean opposition party said it would cooperate with government in combating the wildfires on the condition that the government approves the constitutional judges nominated by the opposition party to impeach Pres Yoon. Last year, the opposition party cut the entire

NBS (National Barometer Survey) - Mar. 24-26

- Party popularity

🟥 PPP 36 (+4)
🟦 DPK 36 (-2)
🔷️ RKP 7 (-)
🟧 Reform 3 (+2)

- Presidential election - Gov. Or Opp

🟥 Government 37% (+1)
🟦🔷️🟧 Opposition 51% (-)

- View on Yoon's impeachment

✅️ For 58% (-2)
❎️ Against https://t.co/qT0EFcTIgZ

The novelist Kim Cho-yeop said, “I demand Yoon’s quick removal, please. I’m so stressed I can’t write a word these days. Quickly, please!”

https://t.co/1YolDnBDvr

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yoon Suk Yeol is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for charges related to the 2024 South Korean political crisis, including but not limited to allegations of insurrection, abuse of power, or other criminal acts stemming from his martial law declaration and related subsequent actions by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will remain open through 2026 regardless of whether Yoon's initial sentencing includes prison.  Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Yoon be sentenced to prison before 2027?

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol as part of his ongoing insurrection trial by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Only the sentence rendered in Yoon Suk Yeol’s insurrection case including the charge of leading an insurrection will count. Sentences rendered for separate cases (e.g. Yoon Suk Yeol’s trial on charges of benefiting the enemy related to drone flights over North Korea) will not count. If the insurrection case is formally consolidated with other cases into a single judgment, this market will resolve based on the total sentence issued for this consolidated case.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Yoon Suk Yeol is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If Yoon Suk Yeol is sentenced to life in prison, this market will resolve to the highest bracket.

For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Yoon Suk Yeol is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.

If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and court system; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 30 years in prison?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kim Keon Hee is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, including but not limited to allegations of stock price manipulation, bribery, election interference, abuse of power, or criminal acts related to Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law declaration and related subsequent actions, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will remain open through March 31, 2026 or until Kim Keon Hee is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Kim Keon Hee be sentenced to prison by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Han Duck-soo is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for charges related to the 2024 South Korean political crisis, including but not limited to allegations of failure to promulgate legislation, obstruction of constitutional processes, or other criminal acts stemming from his actions as Acting President and Prime Minister by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will remain open through 2026 regardless of whether Han Duck-soo's initial sentencing includes prison.  Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Han Duck-soo be sentenced to prison before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lee Jun-seok serves any time in custody in any prison between August 4 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Lee Jun-seok in jail in 2025?

Former South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo is scheduled to be sentenced on January 21, 2026 in his criminal case including charges of aiding an insurrection and perjury, among other charges, related to his involvement in Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law declaration in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-special-prosecutor-seeks-15-year-jail-term-ex-pm-han-martial-law-2025-11-26/.

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on former South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo in this martial-law related criminal trial by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Han Duck-soo is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If Han Duck-soo is sentenced to life in prison, this market will resolve to the highest bracket.

If no sentencing takes place by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

It does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Han Duck-soo is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.

If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and court system; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 15–20 years in prison?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hwang Kyo-ahn spends any time in custody in a jail or prison between November 3 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hwang Kyo-ahn spends time in custody in a jail or prison. Temporary holding at a facility, such as the Seoul Detention Center, while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant, does not qualify. However, non-temporary detention initiated by a court-ordered warrant will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Hwang Kyo-ahn in jail by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ye (Kanye West) is arrested between April 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kanye West arrested in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chungin (Roy) Lee serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between June 9 (inclusive) and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cluely CEO Roy Lee in jail in 2025

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between July 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Obama in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Volodymyr Zelenskyy is confined in a jail or prison for any length of time by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

House arrest will not qualify toward the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the detaining government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy in jail by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Han Duck-soo spends any time in custody in a jail or prison between November 24, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Han Duck-soo spends time in custody in a jail or prison. Temporary holding at a facility such as the Seoul Detention Center while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant does not qualify. However, non-temporary detention initiated by a court ordered warrant will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Han Duck-soo in jail by January 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Park Sung-jae spends any time in custody in a jail or prison between October 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a facility, such as the Seoul Detention Center, while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant, does not qualify. However, non-temporary detention initiated by a court-ordered warrant will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Park Sung-jae in jail by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Larry Summers serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between November 18, 2025 and December 31, 2025 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Larry Summers in jail before 2026?

 This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referenced John Bolton serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between August 25, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


John Bolton in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referenced James B. Comey serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between September 25, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


James Comey in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between June 5, and  December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump jail Elon Musk?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between July 22 (inclusive) and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Jerome Powell in jail in 2025

On August 20, rumors emerged that Mikey Shelton was behind the crypto token $YZY.
 
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referenced Mikey Shelton serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between August 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.



Mikey Shelton in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hayden Davis serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between February 16, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Hayden Davis in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden is arrested between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Joe Biden arrested by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if owner of Barstool Sports David Scott Portnoy, serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between February 17, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Dave Portnoy in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell is released from custody by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Maxwell is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Maxwell is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Maxwell to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". 

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ghislaine Maxwell released from custody in 2025?

BitBoy was recently arrested due to a warrant issued for threatening communications he sent to a Judge. You can read more about that here: https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/22059661159362

This market will resolve to "Yes" if BitBoy (Ben Armstrong) is convicted of any charges related to the emails he sent to Judge Kimberly Childs, by March 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Convictions must be for criminal charges.

If the case is completely dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation occurs in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".

Once an individual is convicted it qualifies for an immediate "Yes" resolution, regardless of later appeals, etc. This market will resolve based on the first conviction in a qualifying case.

The primary resolution source will be official court records, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

BitBoy convicted?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Odell Beckham Jr., serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between March 10, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be use

Odell Beckham Jr. in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione formally agrees to a plea bargain for any of his murder or terrorism charges by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

As they stand on February 21, qualifying charges are:
Federal - Murder through use of a firearm
State - Murder in the first degree, murder in the second degree as a crime of terrorism, murder in the second degree

If all of these charges are dropped or dismissed, or otherwise changed to charges that involve neither murder, manslaughter, nor terrorism, this market will resolve to "No". If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open to consider further retrials, only resolving once this market's resolution date has passed.

If a verdict is reached on all named charges, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market is the ruling court in this case, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Luigi Mangione plea deal in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Volodymyr Zelenskyy is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrested by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if former Georgia State Representative Stacey Abrams is arrested between February 19 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Stacey Abrams be arrested in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andrii Yermak is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Andrii Yermak arrested by December 31?

Sam Bankman-Fried is tweeting again (https://x.com/SBF_FTX/status/1970633704323362904).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Sam Bankman-Fried is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Sam Bankman-Fried  to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?

Order Book

Market Context

Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?

Rules

Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?

Order Book

Market Context

Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?

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